Empiricism and Rationalism Essay Example For Students

Observation and Rationalism Essay Observation and rationalismâ bearings of information on new time The turn of events and validation of the techniques for logical information is the principle objective of the scholars of present day times. Two essential techniques are framed and on this premise the inverse philosophical headings: induction and logic show up. Experimentation is a philosophical bearing that perceives tactile experience as the principle and just source and substance of solid information. The author of this hypothesis is the English logician Francis Bacon, who solidly supported an assessment that information is the most noteworthy incentive in this world. We will compose a custom paper on Empiricism and Rationalism explicitly for you for just $16.38 $13.9/page Request now Empiricist thinks about that information is the impression of genuinely existing reality. The reflection happens through the faculties (vision, contact, feeling of smell, hearing, taste). As per Bacon, everything that is seen by the sense organs must be affirmed by understanding, that is, an examination, hence his hypothesis is grounded on tactile experience. For example, Aristotle accepted that of the three most significant sentiments (feeling of smell, hearing and vision) the vision is the most important in giving indispensable needs, however hearing is increasingly significant for the improvement of knowledge. Aristotle portrayed hard of hearing individuals as  â€Å"uninformed, wanton, and unequipped for thinking, nothing better than animals†, so as he would like to think, the hard of hearing one can't be shrewd not normal for the visually impaired one. Visual deficiency is a progressively genuine disease, yet it has less impact on mental advancement than deafness, as the visually impaired from birth are more brilliant than the hard of hearing. A definitive assessment of the rationalist added to the way that the visually impaired, as opposed to the hard of hearing appreciated more prominent help and compassion in the public arena. Another case of experimentation is the contentions of Zeno as indicated by the Parmenides hypothesis about wealth and development of things. The substance is that the development can not start, in light of the fact that, so as to go at any rate a little separation, it should initially arrive at its half. In any case, before that, it should initially arrive at the quarter point. Be that as it may, to arrive at the quarter point, it should initially arrive at the half of the separation of the past half. Consequently, it will never move strange, arriving at the quarter purpose of the accompanying point and pass a vast measure of littler separations heretofore. Moreover, it additionally requests a limitless measure of time, that avoids the capacity of development. Logic is an all encompassing epistemological idea as per which the genuine guideline of being, the information and conduct of individuals are the standards of psyche. Philosophical logic roots to artifact: to the regulation of Socrates about the distinguishing proof of truth and profound quality, to the hypothesis of Plato about thoughts as the genuine substance of the real world, and so on. For example, an old Greek logician Heraclitus clarifies the world as â€Å"ever-living fire†. The world is an arranged blend of different components or substances delivered by the essential material. The fire is the most powerful, variable of the considerable number of components. It assumes a noteworthy job in the principle of Heraclitus, however it's anything but a remarkable and interesting hotspot for different things since all things or components are equal. Fire is more significant as an image than as an essential component. This is a clarification of the pragmatist. Logic or observation: experience or psyche? Such inquiries can't be replied by unambiguous answer. There are numerous thinkers, realists and empiricists among them, who have advanced their speculations on this issue and gave life to demonstrate it. The realists were rivals of the empiricists. The principle contention of the pragmatist in the debate with the empiricist is that tactile experience itself, not changed by the brain, can't be the premise of information. In the event that the realist guides information to the test investigation of individual things, at that point the empiricist for the source purpose of information takes an individual demonstration of reasoning. .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938 , .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938 .postImageUrl , .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938 .focused content zone { min-tallness: 80px; position: relative; } .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938 , .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938:hover , .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938:visited , .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938:active { border:0!important; } .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938 .clearfix:after { content: ; show: table; clear: both; } .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938 { show: square; progress: foundation shading 250ms; webkit-change: foundation shading 250ms; width: 100%; mistiness: 1; progress: darkness 250ms; webkit-change: haziness 250ms; foundation shading: #95A5A6; } .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938:active , .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938:hover { murkiness: 1; progress: obscurity 250ms; webkit-progress: darkness 250ms; foundation shading: #2C3E50; } .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938 .focused content zone { width: 100%; position: relative; } .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938 .ctaText { outskirt base: 0 strong #fff; shading: #2980B9; text dimension: 16px; textual style weight: striking; edge: 0; cushioning: 0; text-embellishment: underline; } .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938 .postTitle { shading: #FFFFFF; text dimension: 16px; textual style weight: 600; edge: 0; cushioning: 0; width: 100%; } .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938 .ctaButton { foundation shading: #7F8C8D!important; shading: #2980B9; fringe: none; outskirt range: 3px; box-shadow: none; text dimension: 14px; text style weight: intense; line-stature: 26px; moz-outskirt span: 3px; text-adjust: focus; text-adornment: none; text-shadow: none; width: 80px; min-stature: 80px; foundation: url(https://artscolumbia.org/wp-content/modules/intelly-related-posts/resources/pictures/basic arrow.png)no-rehash; position: total; right: 0; top: 0; } .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938:hover .ctaButton { foundation shading: #34495E!important; } .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4 b938 .focused content { show: table; tallness: 80px; cushioning left: 18px; top: 0; } .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938-content { show: table-cell; edge: 0; cushioning: 0; cushioning right: 108px; position: relative; vertical-adjust: center; width: 100%; } .u480b5a46f271499e31edaf0975e4b938:after { content: ; show: square; clear: both; } READ: Essay on Civic Engagement through Community Problem Solving EssayAccording to Bacon the empiricists, similar to ants, just gather and fulfill with the assembled, however realists, similar to creepy crawlies, produce fabric from themselves. The pragmatists consider that we have genuine information in our brain from the earliest starting point as adages. In this way, we should arrange involvement with understanding with these sayings. The empiricist helps a sort to remember adjusted cynic, who dismisses the presence of information without tactile experience. Obviously, there are a few realists who share this feeling. Rene Descartes, the originator of realism, accepted that that experimental experience has a changing, unsteady nature. With the assistance of sensations, an individual sees the world as per conditions, and consequently expectation ought to be set on the psyche. Be that as it may, it isn't sufficient to have a decent psyche; the primary concern is to have the option to apply it. As he would like to think, the faculties can be utilized in regular day to day existence, yet in logical movement, they are dubious. In this way, he additionally can be considered as a sort of altered cynic. The pragmatist and adherent of Descartes Benedict Spinoza accepted that erotic insight gives shallow information, we get dependable information about reality just using the brain. The most elevated type of insight, as indicated by the rationalist, is instinct. The rule of truth is the lucidity. An extraordinary spot possesses the hypothesis of Kant, who continues from the differentiation among unadulterated and observational information. All information starts with understanding. Outside items just influence our faculties, arousing a person’s intellectual capacities to the real world. Our psyche associates, looks at, blends or breaks down the got thoughts, forms the sexy impression into information. This information Kant calls understanding. He additionally attempted to recognize from the earlier information, that is, the piece of human information that can't be acquired as a matter of fact. In the eighteenth century, Kant attempted to explain the destiny of the alleged old quandary the discussion of logic and observation trying to join them, however it was not effective. Thus, theory is a science, that is guided distinctly by hypotheses and suspicions, and numerous inquiries can't be replied with certainty. Subsequently, it is difficult to state which of these bearings: induction or logic is nearer to the real world. The situation of realists, just as the situation of empiricists, was uneven, absoluted with one of the subjective charachters of human, that at last added to the foundation of the way of thinking of a supernatural and unthinking perspective.

Solutions to Rent-Seeking Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3500 words

Answers for Rent-Seeking - Research Paper Example Third, NIE is change arranged, trying to change the organizations that it contemplates and through them the more noteworthy society on the loose. Not the same as other socio-social ways of thinking, NIE looks for legitimacy in judgment through cost/advantage and customary monetary strategies situated in insights. Though conventional financial aspects might be viewed as the rationale of business as usual in current society, NIE holds a difficult and basic power utilizing monetary hypothesis and examination to advance change or change in foundations. The establishments themselves might be open, private, corporate, administrative, instructive, non-benefit all can be broke down similarly through the standards of NIE and from this examination change in strategic policies, legislative strategies, and industry guideline may result. Apparently, this is the positive social job for financial matters in present day social orders, and contextualizes NIE in a relationship with a dynamic perspective on society and cultural advancement. The basic research for NIE was led by Ronald Coase, Douglass North, and Oliver Williamson. â€Å"Institutions outline practices and trades in business sectors, business systems, networks, and associations all through the world†¦ The quickly developing field of ‘new institutional economics’ (NIE) examines the financial aspects of foundations and associations utilizing philosophies from a wide scope of orders (counting political theory, human sciences, social science, the executives, law, and economics).† (Brousseau and Galachant, 2008) Having characterized New Institutional Economics, this exposition will look at crafted by Ronald Coase as paradigmatic of the NIE way of thinking, and show how it makes the ground for Gordon Tullock’s inquire about on lease chasing. From this premise, the exposition will analyze recent developments as happened with the ongoing â€Å"Wall St. Bailout,† evaluated to have cost the U.S. citizens somewhere in the range of $4 and $15 trillion

The Minerva Delusion

The Minerva Delusion Update on 6/26/2018: in the years since this post has been written, Minerva has significantly changed their educational and business model, and I have received a lot of questions from prospective or current Minerva students who have asked me about whether this post is still totally accurate. The answer is that it is probably not. I stand by my analysis at the time, and am leaving this post up because I still think the critique remains relevant to continuing ed-tech utopianism. However, if youre someone trying primarily to understand what Minerva is (and ought to be) today, you should probably read something else. This week the tech and educational press has been buzzing about the launch of Minerva University. According to its founder, Internet entrepreneur Ben Nelson, Minerva is intended to tap into the demand for an elite American education from the developing world’s rising middle class. His proposition is simple and compelling: there are more smart students in the world than there are seats in Ivy League schools, and the elastic enrollment afforded by Minervas online format will provide an elite electronic education for those huddled masses yearning to learn. In support of his subversive educational enterprise Nelson has mustered both heavy artillery and covering fire. The former comes from Benchmark Capital, the VC behemoth which has invested $25 million dollars to found Minerva. The latter comes from the long list of luminaries Nelson has recruited to form his advisory board, including such superstars as Larry Summers (former President of Harvard), Senator Bob Kerrey (former head of the New School), and Pat Harker (president of the University of Delaware and former dean of Wharton, Nelsons alma mater). I am a big believer in educational access. Education is awesome. Extending education to those who cannot presently achieve it is extra awesome. And yet Im troubled by the Minerva Project; specifically, by the lack of credible answers to a few questions that the painfully shallow news coverage have yet to actually address. So Im posting them here and trying to think through what some of the answers might be. Question 1: Who will the students be? According to Minervas website, their admissions process will rely strictly on the worlds most demanding intellectual standards, while giving no weight to lineage, athletic ability, state or country of origin, or capacity to donate. For the sake of argument Ill accept this as a reasonably meritocratic mission, at least for an online university that doesnt have to worry about cultivating diverse perspectives  in a brick-and-mortar classroom. But lets compare two quotes from adjacent paragraphs in this Economist interview: “I don’t want or need to disrupt Harvard. I care about the kid who should have got into Harvard but didn’t,” says Mr Nelson. The plan is for admission standards to be higher than current Ivy League levels, Wait, what? Who wrote this? Forget that: who edited it? Who allowed these two sentences to appear so closely together and make my brain feel like itd been filled with coarse sand? If Minerva has higher standards then Harvard, then how is a student who cant get into Harvard supposed to get into Minerva? Even the most cynical critics of elite admissions processes tend to make their cases at the perceived academic margins (legacies, athletes, disadvantaged students, etc) as opposed to the intellectual core of your class. Put another way: any student who is capable of meeting some undefined higher standard of admission than that held by an elite institution would by definition be one of the most attractive applicants in their pool. In other words the kid who should have gotten in already will have. An article in the Atlantic described Minervas mission slightly differently: [Minerva is for] those students who are being shut out, whether its a smart American kid who has to opt for a solid state school when they had their heart set on Brown, or the child of a well-to-do family in Beijing, by offering them a great education and a worldwide network of contactsWorldwide, [Nelson] believes there are anywhere from 200,000 to 400,000 students who fit his target demographic. This is a different argument, one which does not suffer from the incongruity above. Here, Minerva is cast not so much as a university for Schrödingers student, who simultaneously is and is not one of the top students in the world. This goal is much more modest: Minerva is intended for very good students who wanted to attend elite schools which could not find the space for them. The problem with this goal is that it is driven, not by the merit or match of the educational environment, but for the desire for prestige, affirming, shining, oily; the sweet and sensual nectar of life-giving  prestige. Take the reference above of a smart American kid who has to opt for a solid state school when they had their heart set on Brown. This is a poignant example: it sounds tones of rejection and loss which resonate with everyone. But hopefully the reason that student had their heart set on Brown was because they felt it was the right match for them: because they loved its open curriculum and brick buildings and Providence location and fantastically creative culture and all of the other things that make Brown Brown. But just like that state school isnt Brown, neither is Minerva. In fact, the only thing Minerva has or could have over that solid state school is the glorious glow of prestige descending like an angel from the advisory board on high. I did not attend (or apply to) MIT as an undergrad. But I did have a prestigious private school I was in love with. I didnt get in. I went to a solid state school. I wasnt as happy as I thought I would have been at the private school, but that was not because of the (lack of) prestige: it was because my state school didnt have all of the things that made me fall in love with the private school in the first place. Neither would Minerva. When viewed from this angle, Minerva only solves one of two problems: 1) a problem which doesnt credibly exist, or 2) a problem of providing prestige to those who value it above all else. Either seems like questionable ground on which to found an institution. Question 2: How will they pay? But lets assume, for a moment, that there are hidden masses of  brilliant spurned students who feel matched to Minerva. How will they pay for it? Nelson makes a big deal of the fact that Minervas thus-unspecified tuiton will be half that of the Ivy League or less. The Atlantic ballparks this at $20,000 annually or less, which is indeed less expensive than MIT without financial aid, which will run a wealthy family north of $50,000 a year. However, MIT, like most of our prestigious peers, gives an awful lot of money away to students who need it: last year, our financial aid budget exceeded $100 million. And we do this because we try to make the best education in the world affordable to the best students in the world. This is particularly relevant to Minervas target demographic: smart students in the developing world. We give a lot of money to these students. And I mean A LOT. OF MONEY. Why? Because otherwise, they couldnt afford it. MIT is extremely expensive in America, where median household income is about $50,000 a year. Its unfathomably expensive in the rest of the world, with a median global income of $1,700 per annum. And of the difference is provided out of our own pockets because international students arent eligible for federal aid. But we still must and gladly give every student we admit enough money to attend. These financial realities are part of the reason why international spots are capped at a certain percentage of our class. It gives us the freedom to take the best students in the world, without having to compromise our process by taking only those international students who can pay, or rejecting top international students because they cant. So how is Minerva going to make itself accessible to all of these students in foreign countries? Nelson says he wants to make Minerva the elite university of choice for the child of a Foxconn line operator in China. But according to Forbes, average income in China is only $10,200 annually. Its hard to imagine even a relatively well-paid worker being able to balance a tuition check with rent and food and everything else. In short: if you dont have financial aid available to your best international applicants, you will not be able to enroll and educate your best international applicants. You will instead be left with a very, very small number of good students who can pay, and a larger number of not-so-good-students who can pay. This creates obvious problems for Minervas stated goal of high educational standards. But while discussions of financial aid appear nowhere on Minervas website, a recent tweet by them assured me that aid would be offered. So what kind of aid will it be? I apologize if this sounds cynical but I am extremely skeptical that a for-profit university is going to be profligate with grants. All colleges are businesses, but some are more businesses than others: in 2009 the President of Harvard made a very respectable $700,000, while the CEO of Strayer (a chain of for-profit universities) banked over $40 million. Believe it or not when you dont give any of your money away you can make an awful lot of it! This is not to say that for-profit schools cant give financial aid. To the contrary, as this article reports, the average for-profit college receives 75% of its revenue from federal grants and loans. This is accomplished in part by aggressively recruiting educationally risky students as a vehicle for securing federal aid, a set of practices which led to the recent Congressional investigation of for-profit colleges for educational fraud. Consider that though for-profit colleges only enroll about 12% of the nations students, those students are responsible for over 50% of student loan defaults. If I may draw a very deliberate analogy to the most recent debt-fueled financial crisis: counterparties (the student and the federal government) take on all of the risk of an asset of a questionable value, while the university, playing the role of financial intermediary, cleans up on the fees (the federal financial aid). But even this is beside the point, as Nelson envisions only 5-10% of Minervas students will be U.S. citizens, which is to say that only a very small portion of Minervas students will even be eligible for federal aid. So what happens with the other 90% of international students who need 90% of their tuition covered? There is, as Forbes reported one huge and relevant difference between Chinese and American households: debt, and the lack thereof. The average US household debt is 136% of household income, compared to 17% for the Chinese. This is especially true in education. Student loan debt in America now exceeds $1 trillion; the domestic loan market is already near the saturation point. But  the emerging markets of the developing world are not nearly so highly leveraged in higher education. Suppose Minerva provides not grants, and not federal aid, but instead extensive private loans to the students of the developing world. Then, the relevant questions of the university change from what education can we provide at what standard to are we achieving a sufficient return on investment for our student loans. If this is the case, then the old insight about ad-supported media maps nicely to Minerva. Remember: when you watch a show, or read a newspaper for free, youre not consuming the product of content; you are the product, and your attention is being sold to advertisers. If Minervas financial aid is primarily private loans at high rates of interest to underleveraged students in the developing world, then Id be willing to bet the  real product is the debt being sold to investors.   If thats true, then Minerva isnt a university: its an emerging markets fund hiding behind the mask of higher education. Question 3: Whats really going on? As far as I see it there are two explanations here. Explanation 1 is that Ben Nelson, altruistic visionary, earnestly believes, against the odds and experience of literally every other educational institution, that there are hundreds of thousands of students in the world who are: of equivalent or higher academic caliber than current students of elite, prestigious universities, but who are not admitted to elite, prestigious universities, and have the resources to pay Minervas tuition, which will likely many times global median income, without compromising the first two characteristics or being plunged into hopeless, crippling debt, because they have been given generous, reasonable aid by the  benevolent benefactors who inhabit the halls of high tech venture capital. Explanation 2 is that Ben Nelson, Wharton grad and former MA consultant, has realized that: there is more international demand for prestigious, name-brand American education than there is supply, and if he can conjure prestige ex nihilo then he can tap that demand by distinguishing Minerva from the unsavory, disreputable actors already choking the for-profit university market, and in the process, and of financial necessity, load his comparatively underleveraged international students with loans that will return an appreciable rate to his investors Now, I dont know which one of these explanations is true, but I do know which one I personally think is a hell of a lot more likely, and hint: its not the one that involves relying on the altruism of venture capitalists. In fact, in the Minerva spirit of treating colleges as investment properties, I came to conclusion that I didnt even care which explanation was true, because either way its awful junk that Id short in a second if given the chance. The truth is that if youre a student (especially an international student) who cant go to a place like MIT but still wants to learn something, the situation isnt great, but its better than it ever has been before. Here at MIT we give away OCW and MITx for free; I also highly recommend Khan Academy and Stanfords Engineering Everywhere. Granted, it might not be the same as actually attending an elite school with a terrific education and meritocratic admissions and financial aid. But then again, neither is the Minerva Project. #next_pages_container { width: 5px; hight: 5px; position: absolute; top: -100px; left: -100px; z-index: 2147483647 !important; }

What Are Health Disparities

The term health disparities refers to the differences in health and health care access among members of different populations. These gaps or inequities can connect to race, ethnicity, gender, sexuality, socioeconomic status, geographic location, and other categories. Health disparities are not biological, but instead emerge from social, economic, political, and other external causes. Medical professionals, public health workers, and health researchers study health disparities in order to identify their roots and find ways to prevent them. By reducing health disparities, people and groups can enjoy more equal health outcomes.   Key Takeaways: Health Disparities Health disparities are gaps in health outcomes or health access among different populations.Health disparities stem from social, historical, and economic causes.In the U.S., HealthyPeople.gov is a leading initiative designed to raise awareness about health disparities and ultimately improve health outcomes. Types of Health Disparities The term health care disparities refers to differences in the ability to access health care, utilize health care, or receive quality and culturally competent care. The term health disparities refers to differences in actual health outcomes. Disparities can affect people based on factors like race, ethnicity, gender, sexuality, class, disability, and more. Disparities can also occur due to intersecting categories, such as race combined with gender. In the U.S., the Office of Minority Health is an important source of research and information on racial and ethnic health disparities. Since 2011, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has published and updated multiple reports about health disparities and ways to reduce their impact.   Health disparities can refer to differences in life expectancy, rates of chronic conditions, prevalence of mental illness or disability, access to medical and dental care, and many other possible types of inequality with respect to health. Key Questions The following are examples of questions considered by researchers who study health disparities. Are different racial or ethnic groups more likely to experience preventable chronic health conditions?Do members of a particular group have more or less access to health care services?What differences in life expectancy are documented among different racial or ethnic communities?How does gender affect access to effective treatments for certain health conditions?Do people with a disability receive the same level of care as their non-disabled peers?Are people from different patient populations more likely to experience mental health struggles, such as anxiety or depression? Causes of Health Disparities Health disparities result from complex and intersecting factors. These might include a lack of insurance, an inability to pay for care, a shortage of qualified local health practitioners, language barriers, cultural bias among practitioners, and a variety of other social, cultural, and environmental factors. Health Disparities in the Contemporary U.S. Every decade, the U.S. Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion launches a new Healthy People campaign designed to improve the health of all Americans. Reducing health disparities across all groups remains a top public health priority. There are many examples of health disparities in the contemporary U.S. For instance: According to the CDC, non-Hispanic Black Americans, Hispanic Americans, American Indians, and Alaska Natives have poorer oral health than other racial and ethnic groups.Black women are over 40% more likely to die of breast cancer than their white peers.People living in rural areas have higher rates of death from unintentional injuries.Adults with disabilities are less likely to receive needed medical care because of costs involved. Who Works on Health Disparities? Health disparities are an important topic for research and innovation. Public health researchers, medical anthropologists, and policy analysts make significant contributions to understanding the factors that generate health disparities. On the ground, health care providers can play an active role in raising awareness about disparities both among experts and in communities. Relevant institutions and organizations include the CDC, National Institutes of Health, Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, the Office of Minority Health, and HealthyPeople.gov.  Ã‚   Sources: Orgera, Kendal and Samantha Artiga. â€Å"Disparities in Health and Health Care: Five Key Questions and Answers† Kaiser Family Foundation, 2018.Strategies for Reducing Health Disparities. CDC. 2016.Health Disparities. Medline Plus, 2018.

Indigenous people and the Sale of Land - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 8 Words: 2492 Downloads: 4 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Law Essay Type Cause and effect essay Level High school Did you like this example? land, you must remember that it is sacred and you must teach your children that it is sacred and that each ghostly reflection in the clear water of the lakes tells of the events and memories in the life of my people. The waters murmur is the voice of my fathers father. If we sell you the land you must remember and teach your children that the rivers are our brothers, and yours and you must henceforth give the kindness you would give any brother. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Indigenous people and the Sale of Land" essay for you Create order We know that the white man does not understand our ways. One portion of land is the same to him as the next, he is a stranger who comes in the night and takes from the land whatever he needs. The earth is not his brother but his enemy and when he has conquered it, he moves on. He leaves his fathers graves behind and does not care. So we consider your offer to buy our land. If we decide to accept, I will make one condition. The white man must treat the beasts of his land as his brothersYou must teach your children that the ground beneath their feet is the ashes of our grandfathers. So they will respect the land. Tell your children that the earth is rich with the lives of our kin. Teach your children what we have taught to our children, that the earth is our mother. Whatever befalls the earth befalls the sons of the earth. If man spits on the ground, they spit on themselves. In the contemporary scenario, we are the Chief Seattle and his tribe, the ultimate owners and beneficia ries of the natural resources, so if this lesson does not reach the white man (white man can be equated to the state and private companies who deal with them) it will be partially our fault. The State gets entwined in regulatory aspects and the private parties in their commercial exploitation in terms of their licenses and lease. The natural resources which are described as sacred cannot speak for themselves, so their voices should be the beneficiaries. The people of the country who are the ultimate owner needs to be empowered to have a say when their sacred resources are being plundered, be they in the hand of any party- the state, a corporation, a municipality, a company or so on. The fact that these parties deal with the resources for all makes them responsible to the people (the beneficiaries) and not just the intermediaries (in terms of the state regulatory framework or the administrative bodies), and this makes the extension of this doctrine to private parties viable. It is true that the doctrine is not so much an anti-privatization concept as a vehicle for mediating between public and private rights in important natural resources[1] and the private companies want their freedom of operation. They look at all these regulations from the point of view that they are hindrances and delays in their operations. Even the state wants to attract private companies for exploration in natural resources from its development agenda and to attract foreign investment. One thing both the state and private parties have to be cautious about is that freedom in commons can lead to ruin of all.[2] The jus publicum rights even under private possession should never die. The ultimate owners are the citizens under Article 39(b) of our constitution. Today, if asked they do not actually feel like the owners. If private interests take over the public interests it would be a offence in my opinion against the community, against the long-range interests of the country as a whole a nd more so against the unborn generations.[3] It is time we think about the problems associated with natural resources and their privatisation. To empower the citizens we need to adopt either a stronger regulatory framework ensuring accountability of private companies in its actions or to expand the horizon of the public trust doctrine and unless the same is done it would be difficult to contest that our natural resources are distributed for common good. 5. BIBLIOGRAPHY PRIMARY SOURCES LIST OF STATUTES Coal Mines (Conservation and Development) Act, 1974 Coal Mines (Nationalization) Act, 1973 Coal Mines (Taking Over and Management) Act, 1973 Common Rights Registration Act, 1965 Comptroller and Auditor General of India Act, 1971 Constitution of India, 1949 Constitution of United States Indian Telegraph Act, 1885 Magna Carta, United Kingdom, 1215 Mineral Concession Rules, 1960. Mines and Minerals (Regulation and Development) Act, 1957 NEPA (National Environment Policy Act), 1970 Oil fields Regulation and Regulation Act, 1948 Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act 43 U.S.C. 1301(e) Petroleum and Natural Gas Rules, 1959 Right to Information Act, 2005 Telecom Regulatory Authority of India Act, 1997 The Coal India (Regulation of Transfers and Validation Act,2000). The Coking Coal Mines (Emergency Provisions) Act, 1971. The Companies Act, 1956 The Indian Trust Act, 1882 The National Telecom Policy of 1994 The New Telecom Policy of 1999 The Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act, 2006 The Territorial Waters, Continental Shelf , Exclusive Economic Zone and Other Maritime Zones Act, 1976 REPORTS/CONVENTIONS Comptroller and Auditor General Report on 2G Spectrum, 2012 Comptroller and Auditor General Report on Coal Block Allocation 1996-2010, 2012 Constituent Assembly Debates, Vol. VII, 506 (Lok Sabha Secretariat, New Delhi, 2003) Declaration on Right to Development, 1998 Digest of Justinian, Rome Draft international Covenant on Environment and Development Helsinki Rules, 1966 International Covenant on civil and political rights (ICCPR), 1966 Report on Conference of Conservation of Natural Resources, 1908 The Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters (Aarhus Convention,1998) World Trade Report on Trade in Natural Resources, 2010 SECONDARY SOURCES BOOKS A.K. 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Uncertainty and Project Management Beyond the Critical Path Mentality Free Essays

string(48) " with the concepts of critical path scheduling\." UNCERTAINTY AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT: BEYOND THE CRITICAL PATH MENTALITY Arnoud De Meyer1), Christoph H. Loch2), Michael T. Pich3) 1) Professor of Technology Management, INSEAD (arnoud. We will write a custom essay sample on Uncertainty and Project Management: Beyond the Critical Path Mentality or any similar topic only for you Order Now de. meyer@insead. edu. sg) 2) Associate Professor of Technology Management, INSEAD (christoph. loch@insead. fr) 3) Assistant Professor of Technology Management, INSEAD (michael. pich@insead. edu. sg) Keywords: project management, uncertainty, project profiles Abstract Project management is often identified with network planning techniques such as PERT, Critical Path Methods, Gantt Charts, etc. These techniques help us to cope with the management of complexity in a project. But projects are often confronted with a high level of uncertainty. Coping with this uncertainty requires another management approach. In this paper we categorize the different types of uncertainty with which a project manager can be confronted and we develop a list of tools and managerial approaches that can help the project manager to respond to the different types of uncertainty. 1. INTRODUCTION In executing operational activities, organizations often find it useful to make a distinction between processes, the systematic execution of repetitive activities, and projects, the one-time execution of more or less unique activities. In today’s new ‘new’ economy, the second form of operations is gaining in importance as more and more activities are carried out as projects. One can find many reasons for this shift of emphasis. The fast pace of competition requires constant innovation. Better-informed customers require customization. Internationalization and constant mergers and acquisition require more agility. In short, the current business environment requires constant change, and implementing change entails the need to master projects. A project can be defined as a unique set of activities with more or less clearly defined objectives, carried out within a limited budget and limited time span. Typically, project management requires paying attention to two major areas of responsibility: (i) managing tasks; and (ii) managing relationships. Successful project managers understand that both are important. However, the available formal management tools address only planning and task management. Consider the following real story: It is 9:30AM on a Wednesday morning in southern California and thirteen men sit around a rectangular table in an office trailer parked at the edge of a multi-million dollar land development site. It is the weekly grading-logistics meeting at Ladera Ranch, where the project management team, representing the landowners and money partners, sits down with its various engineering and earth-moving subcontractors to discuss the progress of the project and any outstanding issues that need attention. Most of the men huddle over a topographical map that lies at the center of the table, discussing the most recent changes made to the â€Å"final grade† of building lots, streets and community buildings they are supposed to deliver in phases over the next three years. Behind them, taped to one of the dusty walls of the trailer, hangs a six-foot long Gantt chart, dutifully updated using the latest version of Microsoft Project(. At no time during the two-hour meeting do the men refer or turn to the Gantt chart. The term â€Å"critical path† is mentioned only twice during the meeting, and is used on both occasions more as a metaphor for urgency than as an explicit reference to any activities highlighted as critical on the forgotten Gantt chart behind them. After the meeting, one of the authors asked a member of the project management team whether they ever referred to the Gantt chart during one of these meetings. The reply was â€Å"If I need a Gantt Chart to tell me what’s going on, I should be fired. Fifty percent of my job is managing relationships with our subcontractors, regulatory agencies and the landowners. Thirty percent is what I call vision: scanning the horizon more than three months out to identify potential problems while we can still do something about them. The final twenty percent is driving the site and keeping track of what is really happening out there. The Gantt chart is more a reflection of what happened last week, and what someone hopes will happen next week. †¦ The problem is that every play we run is an option play (and the Gantt chart fails to reflect that). This reaction is typical for many of the project managers with whom we interacted. They don’t find the existing formal planning techniques very useful – the critical path method (CPM, PERT) and a plethora of heuristics, algorithms and concepts elaborating it. They dutifully draw the critical path, refer to it for formal performance review meetings, but often pay more attention to oth er factors. This may, of course, not always be the case: sometimes the Gantt chart is indeed the bible by which the project is managed. The problem faced by project managers is recognizing which approach is appropriate for the particular project at hand. Should they strictly enforce the discipline inherent in critical path thinking or should they adopt a more ‘contingent’ style of management, utilizing a set of tools and techniques better suited to the particular characteristics of the project? There are few guides to inform the project manager in this important decision. Managers are left to their intuition as to which methods and style of management to choose. The pressure to adopt the discipline of critical path thinking is strong, but the track record of this approach is not overwhelmingly positive(it is common for projects to miss budgets, schedules, specifications and opportunities in spite of the heroic efforts of the project manager to keep the project on track [i]. Based on an analysis of many projects in different contexts we came to the conclusion that the reason for the high variability in the use of the formal planning and control techniques could not be blamed on lack of knowledge on the part of the project managers. We examined 20 projects on which we had detailed information, from industries as diverse as internet applications, real estate construction, specialty chemicals and pharmaceuticalss, aerospace, computers, and telecommunications (see appendix). We found that project managers were familiar with the concepts of critical path scheduling. You read "Uncertainty and Project Management: Beyond the Critical Path Mentality" in category "Papers" The difference in utilization of these planning and control tools appeared to be driven by the degree and nature of uncertainty in the project, and by the ability of the project manager to recognize the effects of uncertainty on the project’s goals and activities. Uncertainty is definitely not a new concept in project management. Existing tools from operations research (e. g. , Monte Carlo simulation, GERT) as well as some qualitative approaches (e. g. Synergistic Contingency Evaluation and Review Technique[ii], Analysis of Potential Problems[iii]) explicitly aim to predict the potential sources of disturbances in the project and to undertake preventive actions in order to avoid the negative consequences that these ‘risks’ could have on achieving the project plan. However, if one examines these tools closely, one finds that they are all heavily influenced by critical-path thinking. That is, the project plan is determined and any project uncertainty or deviation from the plan is seen as a threat to be avoided. If a deviation from the plan does occur, it triggers intense activity to scramble back to the original project plan. This mentality has not, in practice, been sufficient to successfully manage the wide variety of projects often seen by project managers. The core of the argument that we want to develop here is that the project manager needs a better understanding of how uncertainty influences a project, and needs a better toolbox that addresses the specific challenges that different types of uncertainty pose. We must challenge the idea that detailed project planning can be used in all circumstances to develop the optimal project plan that then must be adhered to at all cost. There are times when the style of the project manager must expand beyond a rigid, ‘critical path mentality’ of project planning and iron-fisted control of the original project plan, to a more ‘iterative and parallel’ project management style, utilizing a set of tools better adapted to reflect the particular nature of the project. In order to develop this view, we first explain the role of complexity in project management. It is complexity for which the original planning techniques were developed. Secondly we need to understand the influence uncertainty may have on the management of that complexity. We then propose the project management style and toolbox appropriate for different project characteristics. We conclude with some suggestions as to a pragmatic approach to using that toolbox. 2. PROJECT COMPLEXITY Critical path thinking arises out of the need for disciplined coordination in complex projects. Our sample of projects (see Appendix) suggests that project managers typically wrestle with two major sources of project complexity: task complexity and relational complexity. Task complexity refers to the number of interacting and mutually depending components of the project. These can be activities in the traditional sense, or, more generally, distinct influences on the shape and success of the project. Take as an example the design of the Boeing 777, a new plane with millions of new parts[iv]. Boeing adapted its 3D-CAD system so that it could anticipate, through simulation, space conflicts for the whole plane early on in the development. Coordination of the design of individual components to address these interactions was paramount to the successful completion of this project in a timely manner. In projects with high task complexity, coordination is a key challenge faced by the project manager. Identifying the tasks, scheduling their sequence, allocating resources, determining the critical path, monitoring progress and ensuring that deviations from the critical path are corrected, and achieving the project goals in terms of timing, budget and design quality remain the primary responsibilities of the project manager. The available methods and software tools for determining the critical path and to design a Gantt chart are most appropriate in this situation. When uncertainty is low, project execution requires rigorous tracking against the project plan and systematic corrections to keep the project ‘on path. ’ Here, the discipline inherent in critical path thinking is most appropriate for coordinating project activities and for keeping the project on target. The second type of complexity is caused by stakeholders with conflicting interests. We call this relational complexity. Conflicting interests lead to disagreements about project goals and about priorities among tasks and features of the project outcome. Consider the Eurotunnel project: the French and British governments wanted the project completed with private money and ‘convinced’ a consortium of banks to participate. These financial institutions in turn exhibited extreme risk aversion, insisting on a financing covenant that almost halted the project. The contractors wanted to maximize their profits from construction without any interest in the cost structure of running the tunnel, which, of course, was Eurotunnel’s main concern. These interest conflicts led to major delays, cost overruns and tunnel features that reduced its operating profitability. In the presence of high relational complexity, the project manager must codify ahead of time explicit goals, deliverables, approaches, and penalties in case of negligence on the part of any key stakeholder. This is typically done in the form of a formal contract. Relationship management during project execution then consists of monitoring deliverables and taking action against the formal contract. . DEFINING PROJECT UNCERTAINTY It is obvious that in the presence of uncertainty, the above methods of managing projects will have serious drawbacks. The greater the uncertainty, the more difficult it becomes to rely solely on the planning and control techniques inherent in critical path thinking. However, before we can adequately discuss the influence of uncertainty on project management approaches, we need to understand the different types of uncertainty that can affec t projects. It is tempting to categorize uncertainty in the traditional way, in terms of technical uncertainty, market uncertainty, etc. However, our project sample suggests that, from the standpoint of project management styles, it is more useful to consider the following four major types of uncertainty: (i) variation; (ii) foreseen risk; (iii) unforeseen risk; and (iv) chaos. Variation in activity durations, costs and the exact performance level delivered by resources is a common source of project uncertainty. The nature and sequence of the relevant activities, as well as the objectives of the project, may be well known, and thus, the project plan may remain intact, but project schedules and budgets often exhibit variation around their projected values. A typical example would be the implementation of a construction project where the experience of previous projects allows the project manager to develop a near-optimal project plan, but the exact project duration and cost will vary, more or less, around their projected values. A myriad of small influences play a role, for which it is too expensive to analyze them all individually (e. g. , worker sickness, weather, individual errors, parts not delivered by a contractor, a fight for resources, or some problems being harder than anticipated). We have chosen to label this ‘variation’, because it is parallel to common cause variation in total quality management (TQM), where statistical methods are available (e. g. , control charts) to monitor variations without having access to all the numerous, small, underlying causes. Foreseen Risks are identified but uncertain influences in a project. Whereas variation might lead the project manager to expect a range of possible activity durations (e. g. â€Å"activity x of the project may take anywhere between 32 and 48 weeks† due to a combination of a lot of small influences), risk refers to a distinct and identifiable project influence that may have a singular impact on the project plan. That is, unlike variation, which foresees one single course of action (with â€Å"noise† around some outcomes), risks require anticipated â€Å"contingent paths† in the project plan (â€Å"let’s switch from Plan A to Plan B†).. For example, pharmaceutical development is geared toward detecting and managing risks, mainly drug side effects. A drug typically has a small number of â€Å"probable† side effects that have been previously observed in related drugs. A side effect prompts, for example, a dosage change or a restriction on the drug usage to well controlled circumstances. In the context of risks, the side effect and the response to it are both anticipated. What is uncertain is whether this anticipated event (the side-effect) occurs or not. If it occurs, the anticipated â€Å"Plan B† is taken (the dosage change). In the context of anticipated risks, the occurrence â€Å"triggers† a previously planned response, but does not strictly require new original problem solving. It is important to note that risks do not only represent downside, they can also offer opportunities. A â€Å"side-effect† in drug development is not always a health hazard, but may also be an additional application of the drug to a related disease (this happens regularly in pharmaceutical development). Unforeseen risks are not formally identified in the project planning stage, that is, they are not anticipated, and a â€Å"Plan B† has not been formulated. While foreseen risk is a major influence that can be anticipated, although the project manager can only estimate a probability of its occurrence, there are sometimes influences that cannot or are not foreseen. In the case of unforeseen risks, the project manager does not have a predefined response to the event, either because the manager is not aware of the possibility of the event, or that the event has such a low probability of occurrence that it is not worth creating contingencies in the original project plan. A typical reaction we often hear at this point is â€Å"what’s the difference between foreseen and unforeseen risk — that is, why can’t we call it simply risk? † In theory, it can. It simply is not always practical. Conscientious companies develop â€Å"risk lists† of all the things that can go wrong in principle in their projects. Thus, unforeseen risks can, to a certain extent, be transformed into foreseen risks if the project team is willing to invest the effort. However, some of these risk lists can get very long and still not anticipate all that can happen to a project plan. For example, the designers of the Ford Aerostar minivan could not reasonably foresee the crash of the Challenger shuttle in 1986, making customers reluctant to buy the car that reminded them of it. Or when Minitel was introduced in France in the mid-1980s, one could not expect that its biggest use would be for chat-rooms on sexually related topics (though, interestingly enough, one could have been expected to anticipate this phenomenon 10 years later for the Internet). Whenever a project team pushes the envelope of their technology, or enters a new market (even if it is not completely unknown), it would be foolish to pretend that it can anticipate all possible important events in the project planning phase. When an unforeseen risk occurs, the team must (a) recognize it, and (b) perform new problem solving to develop an appropriate response. These abilities are not at all trivial, and we discuss them further below. Chaos refers to the fundamental uncertainty about the basic structure of the project plan itself. In totally novel projects, where conceptual understanding is lacking, the project plan itself cannot be fully formulated. Projects that occur in periods of technological discontinuity (e. g. today’s experiments in e-learning) are characteristic of this situation. In this case, one works with temporary conceptual models of the project, while, in reality, the project plan is unknown. A good example is Sun’s development of the web page programming language Java. It was conceived in 1991 as the driver of a controlling device for household appliances (a â€Å"super remote control with GUI†). The programming language was meant to run within the hardware. Sun Microsystems tried to sell it for set-top boxes, for CD ROM players, and for PCs, but all attempts failed. Then the web arose in 1993, and Sun made the connection between the opportunities offered by Java and the needs of programming on the web. So the project was yet again completely reconfigured as an interpreted software for Internet applications. There was no project plan possible from beginning to end that could have incorporated this outcome. Sun went from one application to the next, and totally redefined what they wanted to do after each failure. This tenacity and flexibility, coupled with the fact that the people on the project were excellent, allowed them to break through at the end with a product that had very little in common with their original objective. Relationships Among Complexity and Uncertainty Before we address the management issues that are a consequence of the different types of risk, we want to make two observations. First, complexity and uncertainty are not orthogonal. Complexity at the extreme can translate into uncertainty when the project manager is incapable of considering all interrelationships (although the project remains deterministic in principle). And when information exchange and coordination fails (again, because of task or interest complexity) what one party does will surprise the other party, who will then experience the actions by the first party as uncertainty. Second, the different types of uncertainty can, to some extent, be converted into each other. For example, better upfront analysis and a better understanding of the project may help us to translate unforeseen risk into foreseen risk. Similarly, a more refined, detailed examination of the myriad of sources of variation can also translate variation into foreseen risk. These are managerial decisions incorporating the tradeoffs between upfront planning costs and effectiveness with execution costs and effectiveness. Attempting to translate all variation and unforeseen risk into foreseen risk at the planning stage will not only create tremendous up-front cost and complexity in the resulting project plan, it can also lead to complacency in the execution phase, where the project team, assuming the project plan and all its contingencies is now the ‘bible’, no longer scans the horizon for unforeseen project influences, either positive or negative. . A CONTINGENT APPROACH TO PROJECT MANAGEMENT Categorizing uncertainty may be a nice academic exercise. The real question is whether such a classification has any relevance for project management. We argue that each type of uncertainty requires different a different management approach in terms of: (i) project management style; (ii) managing tasks; and (iii) managing relationships. Our ideas are sum marized in Table 1. The reader should note that we present the main uncertainty types one by one. But in practice, complexity and the four uncertainty types may occur together. If we argue, for example, that the project manager’s main challenge under unforeseen risk conditions is to be a flexible orchestrator, this does not imply that he or she can completely forget about coordination, the main task required to manage task complexity. The manager may have to use a combination of approaches to successfully manage the project, as we further discuss below. Variation What happens if the project is confronted with variation in activity durations, costs and/or performance? While the Critical Path Method remains useful in the planning stage, variations in schedule, cost or performance may cause the critical path to shift during project execution. This will be particularly true for projects with high task complexity. To avoid unnecessary fire-fighting, the project manager will need the capability to simulate different scenarios of timing, and may want to build in buffers at strategic moments in the project (as proposed by Goldratt[v] and applied in some software projects). A tracked performance variable—such as days ahead/behind schedule—can be used analogously to a Statistical Process Control (SPC) chart; as long as the variable stays within an acceptable range, no action is taken. However, once the tracked outcome falls outside of the control range—for example, more than x% behind schedule—problem analysis is performed to identify assignable causes, and preventive actions are taken to bring the project back on track to the target. In projects where variation is high, the project manager is first and foremost a trouble-shooter: Someone who can identify when deviations arise and who will expedite the solutions to get the project back on track if and when necessary. Relationship management involves monitoring performance to identify ‘casual deviations’ from targets, and stimulating sufficient flexibility among suppliers, subcontractors and partners so that variations do not snowball during the project. For example, in a building construction project, a delay may cause the non-availability of equipment that must be used elsewhere. Or the late delivery of window frames for a building construction in a country with a lot of rain (e. g. Singapore) may halt all architectural work requiring a dry environment. Foreseen Risks Identifying foreseen risks allows the project manager to develop alternative action paths. While it is still beneficial to utilize critical path methods for developing the project plan, it is now necessary to represent the influence of foreseen risks as alternative, though possibly similar, project plans. Foreseen risks are best represented in a decision tree (second box of Table 1). Decision trees have the advantage of forcing the project manager to consider the effects of early decisions on later risks, and thus, later decisions. Branches in the tree reflect discrete outcomes, and may lead to different decisions being taken. Decisions—that is, responses to random outcomes—then influence future risks, and so on. While it is straightforward to evaluate the options inherent in a decision tree, exercising these options does not come â€Å"natural† to many project managers. Their instinct is to chart a good course of action (formalized in a Gantt chart) and to try everything possible to successfully execute that course of action. Project teams are often reluctant to provide for multiple, parallel approaches and project targets, as this typically increases their own workload, and additional investments are required. Let us go back to the Nopane case. The side effects of the drug could have been documented, and the impact on the success of the drug could have been managed. Clearly some useful but additional analysis could have helped. But the pressure to launch the (very promising) product, more or less according to the original schedule, made scientists and management neglect the information that could have helped them create a successful product. Foreseen risks also affect how project management should approach formal contracts. The project team in one of our samples liked to utilize the phrase â€Å"proactively occupy the white spaces in the contract. † What they meant by this was, through anticipating risks, they could proactively write in the contingencies reflecting these risks. In a sense, this meant staking out a claim before other stakeholders had even thought about the potential risks and opportunities. Progress tracking demands not only monitoring which activities have been completed, but also â€Å"which branch of the tree has materialized†. Risk requires the project manager not only to be able to trouble shoot, but he/she also needs to be a ‘reactive’ consolidator of what has been achieved up to a certain stage in the project. All risks (e. g. , incidents in the environment, or certain outcomes of the project work) must be constantly monitored and communicated to project stakeholders. Flexible contingent actions, depending on outcomes of key influence parameters, should be anticipated in the decision tree. Unforeseen Risks Unforeseen risk makes contingency planning more difficult because not all influence factors can be anticipated, and thus, prevent including all branches of the project decision tree. The decision tree will evolve over the course of the project. Thus, the project team needs to constantly scan for the emergence of new influence factors. Moreover, when significant new information arises, the team must be willing to re-plan — that is, to add branches to the tree. This may require significant new problem solving — a redefinition of the course of action, or even of the project objectives. Therefore, the project manager has to be an opportunistic orchestrator and networker who can detect the new options or threats very quickly — for example, possible new branches in the decision tree. Continuous scouting of markets and relevant technologies will be an essential task to be carried out in the project, and the deployment of new options may require the mobilization of new partners. Therefore, the project manager needs to have a powerful network of relations both inside and outside the organization. In the context of unforeseen risk the project manager is completely at the mercy of the unpredictable occurrence of such an event. However, just knowing that such an event may occur, even though one does not know what it is, can already go a long way in providing for responsiveness. Consider the example of the pharmaceutical company Best Pharma[vi]. Their research organization had to decide which of several possible central nervous system drug research projects to pursue. A serotonin-based molecule looked more attractive in the standard analysis than a calcium-based molecule. But one researcher dug up company statistics of past projects, showing that the chance of additional (non-anticipated) indications discovered later, during clinical development, was surprisingly high. Moreover, it was much higher for the calcium molecule class than for serotonin-based molecules (60% vs. 40%) because of less â€Å"specificity† of the chemical mechanism of action. No particular additional indication could be predicted or planned, but based on past statistics, the researchers could estimate the overall chance of one occurring at all. Moreover, the statistics showed that additional indications tended to be as profitable, on average, as the primary indications. When this was included into the financial analysis, the calcium project looked much more attractive. Thus, the researchers could significantly enhance the project’s value by providing for the inclusion of an additional drug application during clinical testing. A formal contract in such cases is too blunt an instrument to fine-tune behavior, because not all contingencies can be included, and formal penalties are too heavy to be wielded for every small ‘transgression. â€Å"Dedicated assets† may offer a more effective control of selfish behavior: They cause dependence stemming from investments in specific equipment, training, or systems that are useless except in interaction with the current partner, and thus are lost when the partner withdraws. Studies have shown that partners work best together if the dependence is mutual, and thus neithe r party has an incentive for short-term selfish behavior. For example, in projects performed by companies jointly with their suppliers, efforts to improve project performance were highest when neither side had the power to appropriate all the benefits alone[vii]. Mutual dependencies as well as personal relationships allow the establishment of an atmosphere of accountability and trust, where all parties can make an effort to achieve the project objectives. Once such a spirit of collaboration has been achieved, arising problems can be resolved collaboratively to the best of the project as a whole. The project manager often plays a critical role in establishing a network of relationships, within which project â€Å"crises† can be resolved constructively. In many organizations, the project manager is an important ambassador for the project in this sense[viii]. Providing this level of project management flexibility is a major managerial decision that is often resisted. Sometimes the new information is not tracked or not understood, the team cannot develop an effective response plan in time, or it has no incentives to spend the effort. For example, target â€Å"hitting† is sometimes valued more highly than doing the best possible. It must also be clearly recognized that putting in place such flexibility is costly in terms of management attention, systems, and resources, as we further explain in Section 5. Chaos Chaos requires flexible approaches and a constant learning from feedback. A fundamental change in the project structure cannot be handled as a ‘additional alternative’ in a decision tree. It requires a complete redefinition of the project. In addition, the project team may not be able to rely on only one approach because the failure probability may be too high. Rather, the team may have to define several alternative projects in parallel, â€Å"options† to be pursued at the same time. The team then needs to iterate and select the ‘surviving solution’ (bottom of Table 1). Iteration requires a high degree of autonomy for the project team, to give it the flexibility to re-define the project. Coping with constant change will require the project manager to be an entrepreneur, who develops close contacts with customers and opinion leaders in the field. A project of this nature cannot be planned, but requires a continuous verification of the hypothesis on which the original project was based. Planning may be important in order to check the hypothesis of the project, but events may well be fortuitous and thus the plan itself relatively irrelevant. More important than a plan is the ability to run experiments very quickly and consolidate the learning from these experiments for further use in the project. This is similar to the description that Iansiti and West provided of internet based projects[ix]. The autonomy of an entrepreneurial team must, however, be balanced by an organizational discipline of cutting projects ruthlessly when their chances of any success have become too small. History is littered with organizations that let their project portfolio balloon out of control, and only a painful restructuring could get them back to a sustainable mix of efforts. . COEXISTENCE OF UNCERTAINTY TYPES We have consciously chosen to use the word ‘type’ of uncertainty. We have explained earlier that the different types are not points on some scale of uncertainty or complexity, but can co-exist. But having said this, in many cases one may be able to determine a dominant type, which will determine the main management focus. T hus, a particular characteristic of the project manager that we emphasized for one type of uncertainty does not mean that the other characteristics become irrelevant. If the project manager who leads an ambiguous project needs to be a flexible orchestrator, this does not mean he/she can completely forget about trouble shooting. Likewise, the information requirements for a project with unforeseen risk are focused on the evolutions in market and relevant technologies, but that does not mean that the experience built up during the project has become completely irrelevant. So far, we have discussed the impact of uncertainty on complexity and coordination. But as we have alluded to earlier, complexity may create uncertainty. For example, task complexity may exacerbate uncertainty when coordination breaks down. In that case we may create additional unforeseen risk. Or consider the case of a project characterized by chaos and high relational complexity. Relational complexity causes the parties to insist on defined deliverables, and any failure to deliver will immediately trigger accusations of shirking and cheating. But predefined deliverables are exactly what one cannot produce in a chaotic project! Relational complexity may thus exacerbate the uncertainty level. Projects with both high complexity (especially relational complexity) and high uncertainty (on the dimensions variation, unforeseen risk or chaos) are difficult to manage. Often, public projects fall into this category. Such projects are almost always characterized by a high degree of relational complexity because they have many stakeholders with conflicting interests. Attempting to tackle unknown applications or technologies in such projects is very dangerous and often leads to project failure. But what can one do? If possible, one should attempt to use only proven technologies, reducing uncertainty. Where that is not possible, one can try to isolate the uncertainty in one project module with lower complexity. In this case, a master plan satisfying the stakeholders can still be formulated, only that the one sub-project with high uncertainty must be planned with a large buffer (to allow for variation or iteration) and deliverables that are formulated in a flexible way to allow for adjustments to contingencies. These adjustments may then be negotiated when they occur. The high uncertainty module then must be managed in isolation from the others with an appropriate project management style. As an example, consider the construction of the Denver and Singapore airports[x]. The Denver airport design included a fully automated baggage management system representing cutting edge technology (which the airlines did not even want; they preferred simpler half-automated solutions). The system proved so difficult that it delayed the opening of the airport by 9 months, and finally a manual system had to be put in place instead. The newly opened Singapore airport, in contrast, started construction with a proven manual system, but with a layout that allowed installation of a fully automated system later. Thus, the state of the art technology was decoupled from the rest of the project and could be added in when it was proven. The Singapore airport was opened on time; the decoupling of high uncertainty and high complexity is a key step in keeping the project management challenge feasible. 6. A PRACTICAL APPROACH Now that we have an idea of how complexity and uncertainty influence the management style and the focus of project management, we propose a road map for action. It consists of three steps: a diagnosis phase where the profile of the project is determined, a organizational phase for building the infrastructure for project management, and an assignment phase where accountability for the project results are clarified and communicated. Project Profiling Traditionally, one would start the project by determining what tasks one has to perform, and what resources are needed. But this may determine only a set of tasks or influences that are certain to arise during the project, neglecting potential influence factors creating risk or unforeseen risk. Similarly, by enumerating the tasks and resources needed for the projects, we pay insufficient attention to the conflicts that may arise among stakeholders. Therefore we argue here that a different job has to come first. This first job consists of determining an uncertainty profile. This is a graph that depicts the relative importance of the different types of uncertainty in the project (Figure 1). Tasks are secondary, and may be defined differently depending on the project characteristics (e. g. , when uncertainty is high, one may add tasks that are geared toward learning, not output). This is, of course, a qualitative estimation. It is usually impossible to have a number for this importance. But it is our experience that project managers have a pretty good feeling for what is going to disrupt the project. They may not use the labels we have developed here, but they know pretty well whether it is uncertainty about the execution of the tasks that will cause disruption of the project, the management of the relationships or ather the many unknowns about which tasks await the project team. While we accept that the quantification is difficult, we want to remind you of the example of the pharmaceutical company Bestpharma who could estimate the impact of an unexpected and unknown drug indication. This shows that with good analysis one can get an estimate for the size of the threat to the project. Moreover, thinking through the uncertainty profile helps to prepare the project team for the uncertainty challenges they can expect in the project. One way of approaching the estimation of uncertainty consists of designing lists of areas of potential uncertainty or questions about sources of uncertainty, and then systematically evaluate whether these areas of uncertainty are expected to cause common cause disturbances (variation), assignable cause disturbances (risk), whether they are sources of unexpected opportunities (unforeseen risk) or simply could rock the whole set of hypotheses on which the project is built (chaos). Several of the ranking and scoring lists that have been used in project selection in RD management can also provide a comprehensive list of uncertainty factors. These lists are industry specific and never complete, but give the project manager a possibility to thoroughly think through possible risks and opportunities. While the project manager and the project team cannot beforehand quantify the level of unforeseen risk and chaos, they often do have an intuition whether they are low (â€Å"we understand the influences on project outcome very well†) or high (â€Å"we do not have a good understanding of what drives the project’s success, and we may be in store for large surprises†). What is the team sure of, and where are information gaps that could allow surprises? As we already mentioned one can go through a few iterations of the design of this profile by trying to convert one type of uncertainty in another. For example, it may be possible and cost-effective to convert unforeseen risk into foreseen risk that can be anticipated and alternative courses of action planned. With unforeseen risk, one must react on the spot which for most of us is more difficult. If an unforeseen risk strikes, not because the event was in principle impossible to anticipate, but only because the plan was not sufficiently thought through, major damage can result. We provide a few examples of such profiles in Figure 4. Example 1: Variation For example, in the construction of a cruise ship (left profile in Figure 1), the complexity of coordinating 2,000 subcontractors working simultaneously, and monitoring their work to prevent shirking in quality is by far the major concern of the project manager. Variation is probably the main source of uncertainty. Although there is likely to be some foreseen and unforeseen risk, they are unlikely to be of a magnitude to change the nature of the construction of the ship. A major unforeseen risk is unlikely, except for a change in customer requirements. This, in turn, explains why the customer (the cruise ship operator) is typically present with large teams of â€Å"auditors† (often 50 – 100 people) on the construction site, who work with the shipbuilder to avoid late â€Å"catastrophic† design changes. Example 2: Risk (foreseen and unforeseen) Large scale infrastructure developments (center of Figure 1) such as the one described in the introduction of the paper often face less complexity but greater risk (both foreseen and unforeseen), as the nature of the soil masses to be moved may pose unexpected problems. The range of soil conditions may or may not be known, so the management profile is concentrated on anticipating risks and scanning to reduce unforeseen risk. In this case the number of interested parties is lower, as well as the complexity created by the number of tasks to be performed. [pic] Figure 1: Project Uncertainty Profiles Example 3: Chaotic Systems Finally (right part of Figure 2), a hi-tech start-up company with an unproven technology attempting to create a new market faces extreme uncertainty: many success influences are initially unknown, and moreover, they heavily interact. The ability to iterate, learn and adapt will be crucial for a team engaging in such a project. When the influence parameters are interdependent, the project team cannot construct a reasonably informative project decision tree. Checking for possible new influences in isolation is not helpful, as the later realization of other influences may make the assessment obsolete. It is necessary to hypothesize the whole project at once as a system, to proceed based on rough assumptions, and try to falsify them. If the hypothesized system constellation does not materialize, the project must be stopped in terms of its original assumptions. This implies choosing a completely new course of action, starting as if it were a new project. Developing the Project Infrastructure Having determined the project uncertainty profile, the second job consists of developing the appropriate infrastructure to manage the project. Management of task complexity requires a system to schedule the tasks and coordinate the relationships. This may become very difficult in complex projects, as the large literature on activity networks illustrates. The available software provides sufficient heuristics and algorithms to cope with a variety of situations. Tracking through standard metrics, e. g. number of tasks accomplished, serves a double purpose of coordinating multiple parties and providing the incentives to deliver to their commitment. The organization may well be fairly hierarchical. Managing relational complexity requires a different approach and infrastructure. In some project management literature there is substantial attention paid to the management of the relationships in a project. Top management support, good negotiation techniques, team-building exercises, the charisma of the project manager can help to overcome the conflicts of interest. On top of that we have stressed several times the need for a good project ‘contract’ to be agreed upon by the stakeholders in the projects and made before the project starts. Such a project contract needs to include deliverables, schedules of time and resources, rules to solve conflicts and penalties if the conditions are not met. What has to be added based on the level of uncertainty? Management of variation requires the added capability to assess, through simulation, the probability of running against ‘control limits’, requiring corrective action. The project manager should become the owner and guard of the common slack which is built in the project schedule, not at the end of each task, but at strategic ‘locations’ in the overall schedule. A hierarchical organization with a capability to quickly mobilize additional capacity to respond to unexpected common influences should be able to do the job. Foreseeable risk and unforeseen risk require flexibility. While a project schedule may be needed, it is equally necessary to constantly evaluate (known) alternatives and to prepare oneself for sudden changes which require putting into the project schedule alternative or additional tasks. Decision trees can be a useful tool as we argued above. However, putting in place such flexibility is costly in terms of management attention, systems, and resources. A tracking mechanism must be put in place (â€Å"what is going on in the environment that could influence the project? †). The team must have extra capacity to work out responses to sudden events, both on the up- and the downside. A steering committee or oversight process must be in place in order to provide sufficient organizational authority to change the path of the project or the target. The steering committee also makes sure that the project team does not declare a mistake on their part as an external â€Å"uncertainty†. The organization may resemble more that of a network or a bundle of capabilities than that of a hierarchical organization. Finally, the world of chaos requires the ultimate flexibility for a rapid turnaround of experiments or iteration and on the spot decision making. Very often it makes a lot of sense to split up the project in a series of smaller incremental projects[xi]. Feedback systems that provide a lot of information on customer reactions will become an essential element of the management tools. In this case the reliance on traditional activity networks may become dangerous: they may provide false security, or even blind the project team for major changes in the environment. Small entrepreneurial teams will become the preferred way of organizing. The capabilities necessary to manage chaos are quite different from what one sees in the other types of uncertainty. The capability to experiment, but perhaps more importantly, to learn from these experiments is crucial. Yet we are trying to manage projects, not to enhance the general state of knowledge. So it is important that the sequence of experiments and the learning are guided by an overall vision, not unconstrained. The project manager should realize that while a learning and experiment driven strategy is nice copy for stories in Fortune or Business Week, the sequence of failed experiments can be very demotivating in practice. We all know that we learn often more from mistakes than from successes, but the poor project manager who goes through a series of failures is probably not happy with that knowledge. A motivating environment and above all a capacity to persevere are essential elements of managing in chaos conditions. Assigning Accountabilities Different types of uncertainties require different types of project managers. What happens if the team discovers during the analysis of the uncertainty profile that it is ill equipped to carry out the task? What do we do if the project manager has the wrong personality traits or skills? To get out of that quagmire we propose that the definition of the project profile should be iterative. We also suggest that the project team defines itself during the discussion about the project profile. The management of the different types of uncertainty and complexity requires accountabilities at different levels in the organization. Managing task complexity can be accomplished within the project team. However, this is not trivial. It requires that the team has control over all the influences and tasks associated with the project. This is often violated: a sub-project manager often has accountability for events that are outside his/her control. Managing relational complexity may already go beyond the project team. While the project manager or the team can manage minor conflicts, one may need arbitration at higher management levels in case of major conflicts. Similarly, responsibility and accountability for the decisions that are required to cope with unforeseen risk or chaos go beyond the project management team. We alluded previously to the need to constrain the learning with a vision, or to the fact that perseverance requires a favorable context. These are requirements that usually require the intervention by the top of the organization, and go beyond the confines of the project. Changing the basic concept of the project requires involvement of the leadership of the organization. By committing oneself to a particular uncertainty profile, one not only determines the focus of the project management, but also the implication of the different power levels in the organization. Managing task complexity, risk and variation can be kept within the project management team. Managing relational complexity or unforeseen risk will require regular involvement of the top management team. Managing chaos requires the top management to assume the leadership and to take responsibility for the project. 7. CONCLUSION What did we try to achieve? It was not our intention to refine once again the traditional project management techniques. There is sufficient end excellent literature about these. But we wanted to show that the toolbox of a project manager needs to be much more comprehensive than activity networks alone and that the deployment of these tools is contingent to a large extent on the type of uncertainty with which the project manager is confronted. The core message of the article can thus be summarized in the following four statements: 3 The coordination dictated by task and relational complexity in projects is contingent on the type of uncertainty in the project. We distinguished between four types of uncertainty: variation, foreseen risks, unforeseen risks, and chaos. Contrary to classical project management approaches, we suggest that before one determines the tasks to be carried out in the project, it is necessary to determine the uncertainty profile. 7 This uncertainty profile will enable management to define the infrastructure (resources and authority) needed to manage the project and to assign accountability for the success of the project. 9 The toolbox of a project manager is not limited to activity network planning and risk management, but includes decision trees, contingency planning and rapid experimentation combined with learning. We have developed an integration of the different techniques that are available to support the project manager and a conceptual model of where to use them. While our framework will require more empirical research to confirm its applicability, our work to date with project managers suggests that our contingent approach is a powerful tool for adapting management approaches to the circumstances. Enhancing the project manager’s intuition can significantly contribute to project management performance. Type of uncertainty |PM Style |Managing Tasks |Managing Relationships | | | |Planning |Execution |Planning |Execution | |No uncertainty (only task and relational |Coordinator |Plan the nature |Monitoring of |Identify interest |Coordination of | |complexity) | |and sequence of |project progress |conflicts, and codify|stakeholders and | | |master scheduler. |tasks based on |against project |responsibilities and |suppliers | | | |experience. |plan. |deliverables. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |[pic] | | | |Contract design and | | | | |Activity network | |enforcement | | | | |analysis (CPM, |Gantt Chart | |Enforcement of | | | |PERT, etc. ) | | |deliveries by parties | | | | | | |with conflicting | | | | | | |interests | |Variation |Trouble shooter and |Build in |Monitor deviation |Clearly identify and |Monitor performance | | |expeditor |slack/buffers at |from intermediate |communicate expected |against performance | | | |strategic |targets |performance criteria. |criteria. | | |locations in | | | | | | |critical path and | | | | | | |determine control | | | | |[pic] | |limits for | | | | | | |corrective action. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |Simulation of |Use of control | |Maintain some | | | |different |charts | |flexibility with key | | | |scenarios. | | |stakeholders. | Table 1: Focus of project management as a function of uncertainty type |Type of uncertainty |PM Style |Managing Tasks |Managing Relationships | | | |Planning |Execution |P lanning |Execution | Foreseen risk |Consolidator of |Anticipate and |Identify |Increase awareness |Continuously inform | | |project achievements |trigger |occurrences of |for changes in |and motivate internal | | | |alternative paths |foreseen risks and |environment along |and external partners | | | |to project goal |implement |known criteria or |in order to cope with | | | |through decision |contingencies |dimensions |major switches in | |[pic] | |tree techniques | | |project execution | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |Contingency | Occupy the white | | | | |planning, decision| |spaces in the | | | | |analysis. | |cotract. | | |Unforeseen risk |Flexible orchestrator|Bnuild in the |Continuously |Build in ability to |Maintain flexible | | |and networker |ability to add a |question the |mobilise new |relationships and | |[pic] | |set of new tasks |existing project |partners in the |strong communication | | | |to the decision |‘model’ and scan |network who can help|channels. | | |tree |the horizon for |solve new challenges| | | | | |early signs of | | | | | | |non-anticipated | | | | | | |influences. | | | | | | | | | | |Chaos |Entrepreneur |Consider parallel |Repeated |Build long-term |Close linking with | | |Knowledge maganger. |solutions with |verification of |relationships in |users and leaders in | |[pic] | |iteration and |hypotheses on which|order to create |the field. | | |gradual selection |project is built; |interest alignment | | | | |of final approach. |detail plan only to| |Direct and constant | | | | |next verification | |feedback from markets | | | | | | |and technology | | | | | | |providers. | Table 1: Focus of project management as a function of uncertainty type (continued) Appendix: Project Database Our research is based on detailed data on the following projects: | |Acer notebook computer development[xii]: under extreme time to |E-Bay China (based on conversations with management): this case| |market pressure, Ace r reduced the number of correction loops |illustrates the ambiguity caused by applying a known business | |during product development and improved manufacturing ramp-up |concept to a new market. E-bay failed in China because they | |quality (variation). They also concentrated the responsibility|used the same settlement mechanisms used in the US (credit | |for product specifications in one group (interest complexity). card, bank transfer). But these do not work reliably and | | |ubiquitously in China. E-bay was beaten by a local start-up | | |who How to cite Uncertainty and Project Management: Beyond the Critical Path Mentality, Papers